Among the dams on the Colorado is Arizona's Glen Canyon Dam, which creates Lake Powell. https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/news-release/4294, https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/#/news-release/4196, USGS site #09180500 - Colorado River near Cisco, UT, USGS site #09315000 - Green River at Green River, UT, USGS site #09379500 - San Juan River near Bluff, UT, USGS site #09380000 - Colorado River at Lees Ferry, AZ, Snowpack Conditions Upper Colorado Region Above Lake Powell, Lake Powell Inflow Forecast April-July Inflow Forecast, Current Water Year Inflow Forecast Monthly Outlooks, Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program, LTEMP - Long-Term Experimental & Management Plan, Report to Congress - Operations of Glen Canyon Dam - Water Year 2015-2016, National Park Service Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, National Park Service Grand Canyon National Park, U.S. google_color_link = "0000FF"; (Due to the angle of sunlight, this image may cause an optical illusion known as relief inversion.). The March 2023 releases are anticipated to fluctuate between a low of 5,276 cfs to a high of 9,641 cfs. In January, following the wet December Moser noted, the NOAA forecast called for 98% of the 30-year average to reach Powell. Changes in the northeastern reaches of Lake Powell are documented in this series of natural-color images taken by the Landsat series of satellites between 1999 and 2021. She grew up in Tucson, Arizona, where she fell in love with the ecology and geology of the Sonoran desert. View our Current Membership Thank You Gifts, KNAU News Talk - Arizona Public Radio | Water managers, who . Together with the release of more water into Lake Powell from an upstream dam, the decision will keep the lake at a level at which it can continue generating hydropower for the next 12 months. 159 0 obj <> endobj Wednesday snow and wind will be heavy at times leading to difficult if not impossible travel. We are 41% through the Water Year. The declines were first apparent in the side canyons feeding the reservoir which thinned and then shortened. By, What We Know, And What You Can Do To Help. Lake Powell is so low that it is nearing a dead pool, in which water levels aren't high enough to deliver water downstream. An initiative of the Center for Environmental Journalism at the University of Colorado Boulder. Some Arizona cities have implemented drought management plans to conserve water, but the area continues to use water at a rate that negates Lake Powell's recovery. The Bureau of Reclamation announced on May 3, 2022, two separate urgent drought response actions that will help prop up Lake Powell by nearly 1 million acre-feet (maf) of water over the next 12 months (May 2022 through April 2023). Sunday, February 26, 2023 12:00:00 AM Level is 178.87 feet Colorado River Basin Water Management: Evaluating and Adjusting to Hydroclimatic Variability. The May report, released last week, is the final runoff prediction for the season. In water year 2021 unregulated inflow volume to Lake Powell was 3.50 maf (36 percent of average), the second driest year on record above 2002. endstream endobj 160 0 obj <>/Metadata 41 0 R/Pages 157 0 R/StructTreeRoot 59 0 R/Type/Catalog/ViewerPreferences 177 0 R>> endobj 161 0 obj <>/MediaBox[0 0 792 612]/Parent 157 0 R/Resources<>/Font<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text/ImageB/ImageC/ImageI]/XObject<>>>/Rotate 0/StructParents 0/Tabs/S/Type/Page>> endobj 162 0 obj <>stream There is approximately an 80 percent probability that a future elevation will fall inside the range of the minimum and maximum inflow scenarios. By 2002, the lake level had dropped far enough that the exposed canyon walls created a pale outline around the lake. For more information on the tools we use, consult, Upper Colorado Mainstem Specific Site Forecasts. KNAU's Melissa Sevigny reports. As a news piece, this article cites verifiable, third-party sources which have all been thoroughly fact-checked and deemed credible by the Newsroom in accordance with the Civil Constitution. By Anna Skinner On 1/18/23 at 4:42 PM EST. Fish & Wildlife Service Endangered Species Success Stories. While the lake was significantly higher in 2011 and 2012 than in 2005, a careful comparison of the side canyons reveals that the level was still not back to 1999 levels, when the lake was near full capacity. The 30-year average was updated in October 2022 from 1981 through 2010 to 1991 through 2020. By May 1, the spring-summer runoff outcomes are pretty well locked in, which means theres virtually no escape from a third poor runoff year in a row, Jeff Lukas, an independent water and climate researcher based in Lafayette, said in an email. The probable minimum and probable maximum model runs are conducted simultaneously in January, April, August, and October, or when necessary to incorporate changing conditions. He began his journalism career in New Hampshire, then moved West and became a reporter at the Lafayette News. (At normal water levels, both rivers are essentially part of the reservoir.) Her work has appeared nationally on NPR and been featured on Science Friday. The unregulated inflow during the 2000-2022 period has ranged from a low of 2.64 maf (28 percent of average) in water year 2002 to a high of 15.97 maf (166 percent of average) in water year 2011. 04:12 - Source: CNN The release volume from Glen Canyon Dam in January was 500 kaf. "As a result of this update, the median water year 2022 inflow forecast into Lake Powell decreased by 800,000 acre-feet," USBR stated in a press release distributed Thursday. "We might get lucky with the weather, but the idea of the system recovering is really hard unless you reduce water use in that basin," Lund told Newsweek. Today is day 151 of 365 for the Water Year 2023. The model is based on weather conditions over a thirty-year span. The grim forecast comes as water officials race to bolster Lake Powells water levels. Water supply forecasts take into consideration present hydrometeorological conditions and use Lake Powell water level at Wahweap Marina in September 2021 | Photo by Bureau of Reclamation, St. George News . The picture was much different 59 years ago, when the giant storage reservoir on the Colorado River was filling, its electricity helping power the West and the revenue from its power sales helping fund endangered fish protection programs across the Colorado River Basin. Official Glen Canyon National Recreation Area Changing Lake Levels Info. Lake Mead's water levels . The lake is set to reach. The peak inflow to Lake Powell occurs in mid- to late spring, as the winter snow in the Rocky Mountains melts. Prepared by Ashley Nielson NOAA, National Weather Service Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Salt Lake City, Utah www.cbrfc.noaa.gov Contents Graphical view of Lake Powell water data. Last week, the Bureau of Reclamation announced extraordinary action to keep the water level at Powell from dropping too low, which could threaten hydropower production at Powells Glen Canyon Dam. The draft plan is expected to be released next week, according to Becki Bryant, a spokeswoman for Reclamations Upper Colorado River Region. google_ad_format = "160x600_as"; These instantaneous release adjustments stabilize the electrical generation and transmission system and translate to a range of about 1,300 cfs above or below the hourly scheduled release rate. SW Water Vapor, Accessibility of Launch Ramps, Primitive Launches and Other Sites System emergencies occur fairly infrequently and typically require small responses from Glen Canyon Dam. water-data.com LakePowell Water Database . SW Water Vapor, Accessibility of Launch Ramps, Primitive Launches and Other Sites On Tuesday, the lake fell below 3,525 feet above sea level, a key target elevation that water managers have been trying to keep Powell above because it provides a buffer from the minimum level at which Glen Canyon Dam can generate power. But the 30-year period is the standard reference worldwide and captures more variability, according to Paul Miller of the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. //-->, Printable Version As of Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 where elevation was 3521.04', Copyright Summit Technologies, Inc.1999 - 2023Site Views Today: 0Page Views Today: 0, The 28 tracked reservoirs above Lake Powell are currently at 58.69% of capacity. Were an initiative of theCenter for Environmental Journalismat the University of Colorado Boulder. . The most recent data is from Monday, February 27th, 2023. Lake Powells side branches had all retreated compared to the previous years extents. GCC is the official nonprofit partner of Glen Canyon National Recreation Area & Rainbow Bridge National Monument. Committee on the Scientific Bases of Colorado River Basin Water Management, National Research Council. The probable maximum inflow scenario reflects a wet hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 10 percent of the time. Releases from Glen Canyon Dam can also fluctuate beyond scheduled releases when called upon to respond to unscheduled power outages or power system emergencies. Mitchell declined to discuss the pending drought operations plan. But the declining water already has drained some of the fun, he said. Federal and state water managers have watched the water level in Lake Powell closely this year. The grim forecast comes as water officials race to bolster Lake Powell's water levels. hb```)," Water levels in Lake Powell dropped to a new record low on Tuesday. The reduction of releases from Lake Powell from 7.48 maf to 7.00 maf in water year 2022 resulted in a reduced release volume of 0.480 maf that normally would have been released from Glen Canyon Dam to Lake Mead as part of the 7.48 maf annual release volume, consistent with operations under the 2007 Interim Guidelines. The Colorado River flows from the Rocky Mountains in Colorado through the southwestern United States. New 1991-2020 Averages being used this year. To view the most current monthly release projections, click on: Lake Powell Release Projections. The reservoir's levels rise after consistent rain or snowpack melt in the area. Click below for water level and accessibity updates about the launch ramps and services near you. Lake Powell is currently 390.33 feet deep at the dam. Feet above sea level Change - Feet difference over previous . In the image acquired on May 1, 2004, the reservoirs northwestern branch is isolated from the main reservoir; the shallow water upstream could not crest raised areas in the lakebed. But the region is battling a multidecade drought with rain harder to come by. SW Satellite Weather google_color_bg = "FFFFFF"; The Water Desks mission isto increase the volume, depth and power of journalismconnected to Western water issues. google_color_text = "000000"; google_ad_width = 160; The actual end of water year 2023 system storage may vary from this projection, primarily due to uncertainty regarding this seasons runoff and reservoir inflow. Chris Outcalt covers Western water issues for The Colorado Sun. Shifting the period of record decreased the average unregulated inflow 1.20 maf. Glen Canyon Dam currently maintains 30 mw (approximately 800 cfs) of generation capacity in reserve in order to respond to a system emergency even when generation rates are already high. The nation's second-largest reservoir is under pressure from climate change and steady demand, and is now . "These reservoirs are huge," Lund said. Get the most up to date information on Lake Powell's water levels and the status of launch ramps from the Bureau of Reclamation, National Park Service, and more with the links and pages below. Antelope Point Launch Ramp Bullfrog Main Launch Ramp For additional information, the news release can be found here: https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/news-release/4294. Fresh Water News is an independent, nonpartisan news initiative of Water Education Colorado. However, these responses can have a noticeable impact on the river downstream of Glen Canyon Dam. Water Data for 20 days surrounding Feb 28, 2022. DATE MEASURED ELEVATION CHANGE CONTENT INFLOW OUTFLOW HIGH TEMP LOW TEMP WATER TEMP . Learn more at, Photos: Heron Lake, New Mexico, August 2022, Data viz: Elephant Butte Reservoir levels, to increase the volume, depth and power of journalism, https://www.watereducationcolorado.org/fresh-water-news/, www.watereducationcolorado.org/fresh-water-news/. average basin temperatures and precipitation for the forecast period. LAKE POWELL, Utah Lake Powell water levels continue to drop, and a new report released by the Bureau of Reclamation projects the possibility America's . Becky Mitchell is director of the Colorado Water Conservation Board, the states lead water planning agency. Lake Powell Water Supply Outlook, February 1, 2022 Note: This publication is scheduled for revision. The February forecast for water year 2023 ranges from a minimum probable of 8.37 maf (87 percent of average) to a January forecasted maximum probable of 14.93 maf (155 percent of average) with the most probable forecast for water year 2023 of 10.44 maf (109 percent of average). "I would be reluctant to limit it to years just since 2000, because I think there is some value in acknowledging the variability that goes on in our basin," he says. Lake Powell is now at a historic low. Join half a million readers enjoying Newsweek's free newsletters. Water availability, appropriate timing of releases, and impacts on other resources are all being considered as the 2022 Plan is being drafted.. Even Less water forecast to flow into Lake Powell this year, report says May NOAA runoff report predicts even less water will flow into Lake Powell this year than previously forecasted. Based on current inflow forecasts, the current projected end of water year 2023 total Colorado Basin reservoir storage is approximately 20.93 maf (36 percent of total system capacity). CNN's Bill Weir has more. Utahs Flaming Gorge, Colorados Blue Mesa and New Mexicos Navajo. Climate change also plays a part. Sunlight brightens plateaus and southeast-facing slopes, casting shadows on the northern and western faces of the rugged landscape. swE{,,;o0U|+/ :u7j@;pGh00gr\j30sAD+ ON 9 Click for . Shortages have been implemented by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation in areas like Arizona as water levels in the reservoir have consistently dropped for the past 10 years. But generally below-normal precipitation the last several months after a very wet December.. Depending on the severity of the system emergency, the response from Glen Canyon Dam can be significant, within the full range of the operating capacity of the power plant for as long as is necessary to maintain balance in the transmission system. Global warming is expected to make droughts more severe in the future. 0 Up to 80 percent of water use in the basin is for agricultural purposes, but urban water conservation serves an important purpose, too. The most probable inflow scenario reflects a median hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 50 percent of the time. In the main body of Lake Powell, water pooled along its eastern edge, while large expanses of dry canyon floor were visible in the west. Drop us a note at tips@coloradosun.com. At the beginning of water year 2023, total system storage in the Colorado River Basin was 19.54 maf (33 percent of 58.48 maf total system capacity). More by Chris Outcalt, Got a story tip? Detailed Map of Powell To view the most current reservoir elevation projections, click on: Lake Powell Elevation Projections. Surface Water Elevation (feet) Lake Powell End of Month Elevations1 . The water level in Lake Powell was at a record low when rain and snow began to fall across the Colorado River Basin in October, soaking dry soils ahead of the winter season. Lake Powell has fallen victim to excessive water use as a 20-year drought parches the region. This article contains new, firsthand information uncovered by its reporter(s). Under a Drought Contingency Plan adopted in 2019, approximately 500 thousand acre-feet (kaf) of water will come from Flaming Gorge Reservoir, located approximately 455 river miles upstream of Lake Powell. But it is concerning. After decades of drought, the water level in Lake Powell has sunk to unimaginable lows, threatening millions of people who rely on the water supply. In the latter half of the decade, the drought eased somewhat. %%EOF This level is actually .02 feet . This includes directly interviewing sources and research / analysis of primary source documents. At the same time, power producers are gearing up to craft a fallback plan for extending hydropower production at Glen Canyon Dam if water levels continue to fall. The unregulated inflow volume to Lake Powell during January was 361 thousand acre-feet (kaf) (107 percent of average). Reclamation will continue to consult with the Basin States, Basin Tribes, the Republic of Mexico and other partners on Colorado River operations to consider and determine whether additional measures should be taken to further enhance the preservation of these benefits, as well as recovery protocols, including those of future protective measures for both Lakes Powell and Mead. Credit: Alex Hager. Along its route, the river passes through an elaborate water-management system designed to tame the yearly floods from spring snowmelt and to provide a reliable supply of water for residents as far away as California. The annual release volume from Lake Powell during water year 2023 will be 7.77 maf under the Lower Elevation Balancing Tier and will balance the contents between Powell and Mead with annual release volumes from Glen Canyon Dam between 7.00 maf and 9.50 maf as determined under Section 6.D.1 and 7.D of the Interim Guidelines as determined by the Department of the Interior as described above. The plan can be found at the following website: https://www.usbr.gov/dcp/droa.html. The drop in the power forecast comes as Upper Colorado River Basin states of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming prepare to finalize a new drought operations plan for the giant river system. 15 Day Weather Forecast SW Satellite Weather SW Water Vapor Lake Powell is down 6.18 feet from one year ago. Lake Powell has several launch ramps along its 186-mile length. 15 Day Weather Forecast The January 2023 24-Month Study probable maximum and the February 2023 24-Month Study probable minimum inflow scenarios were used to determine the range of probable outcomes. These projections are critical for planning for an increasingly dry future in the Colorado River Basin, but a new paper from Utah State University says the model may still underestimate the risk. In July 2021, water levels on the lake fell to the lowest point since 1969 and have continued dropping. View CFS Last 14 Measurements Lake Powell is down -1.03 feet over these measurements Averages for February 27th Last 10 February 27th's data records Jerd Smith is editor of Fresh Water News. The critical issue is how to maintain the lake at 3,525, which marks an elevation that is the top of the liquid buffer zone designed to protect the lakes mighty electricity turbines. Since the beginning of water year 2000, total Colorado Basin storage has experienced year to year increases and decreases in response to wet and dry hydrology, ranging from a high of 94 percent of capacity at the beginning of 2000 to the now current level of 33 percent of capacity at the beginning of water year 2023. A visual history of the water level of each of our Lake Powell trips over the past three years. On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. Our editorial policy and donor list can be viewed atwateredco.org. In July 2022, the lake reached a historic low of 1,040 feet above sea level. The elevations listed in the August 2022 24-Month Study report reflected the projected physical elevations at each reservoir after implementing operations as described for water year 2023 tier determination purposes. We are 37% through the Water Year. The last couple months have steadied out a little bit, Cody Moser, a senior hydrologist with NOAA forecast center, said during a recent web briefing to review the most recent report. 15 Day Weather Forecast "Its always good to plan for the worst, right? Gas Prices on Lake Consistent with Section 6.D.1 of the Interim Guidelines, Lake Powells operations in water year 2023 are governed by the Lower Elevation Balancing Tier (LEBT) with an initial projected water year release volume of 7.00 maf. Precipitation declines combined with booming urban populations will present a significant challenge to Western water managers in the near future. The probable minimum inflow scenario reflects a dry hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 90 percent of the time. The forecast for water year 2023 unregulated inflow to Lake Powell, issued on January 5, 2023, by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center, projects that the most probable (median) unregulated inflow volume in water year 2023 will be 9.5 maf (99 percent of average). 0.523 maf in Lake Powell from December 2022 through April 2023. google_color_link = "0000FF"; Printable Version Gas Prices on Lake Detailed Map of Powell 15 Day Weather Forecast Soil moisture conditions have improved over the last year across most of Colorados Western Slope, but thats not necessarily saying much because of how bad soil moisture conditions were heading into last years snowmelt runoff season, Moser said. As of September 20, 2021, the water elevation at Glen Canyon Dam was 3,546.93 feet, more than 153 feet below "full pool" (elevation 3,700 feet). However, the Bureau of Reclamation's 24-month forecast that was just released at the end of last week projects Lake Mead to be at 1,041.10 feet in January 2023. A Colorado River flows drop and tensions rise, water interests struggle Can the Ancient Humpback Chub Hang On in Todays Grand Canyon? A century of river flow records combined with an additional four to five centuries of tree-ring data show that the droughts over the past two decades were not unusual; longer and more severe droughts are a regular part of the climate variability in that part of the continent. This is a decrease of 3.33 maf over the total storage at the beginning of water year 2022 when total system storage was 22.87 maf (39 percent of capacity). Additionally, there are possible inflow scenarios that would result in reservoir elevations falling outside the ranges indicated in these reports. Lake Powell is at low for water year and down 9.26 feet from the high. " 9`SADP zg Ab``#@ 7 3 Specifically, Reclamation modeled operations in WY 2023 as follows in the August and September 24-Month Studies: In accordance with the May 3rd Letter, consistent with the provisions of the 2007 Interim Guidelines, and to preserve the benefits to Glen Canyon Dam facilities from 2022 Operations into 2023 and 2024, Reclamation will consult with the Basin States on monthly and annual operations. 175 0 obj <>/Filter/FlateDecode/ID[<68753438768B134985CC80C922059B30>]/Index[159 34]/Info 158 0 R/Length 84/Prev 199590/Root 160 0 R/Size 193/Type/XRef/W[1 2 1]>>stream The NOAA forecast center begins releasing monthly water supply forecasts for the Colorado River Basin in December. Flight Center. 192 0 obj <>stream Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for elevations above 4000.Heavy accumulations of 10-20 are forecast above 6000, 3-8 to 4500 and several inches to valley floors. google_ad_channel ="2397569894"; Scientists say the current drought is the driest on record in the last twelve hundred years. google_color_url = "426C95"; From there, a swing to the northeast delivers boats into Lake Powell's main artery. This was the lowest water levels have been since the lake was first constructed in the 1930s. Reclamation will continue to carefully monitor hydrologic and operational conditions and assess the need for additional responsive actions and/or changes to operations. The end of January elevation and storage of Lake Powell were 3,523.45 feet (177 feet from full pool) and 5.45 million acre-feet (maf) (23 percent of live capacity), respectively. 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